...about the latest financial "crisis" - apparently nobody can remember back to 1987 or (God help you) 1975. These are both years I remember quite well, because they both had economic implosions, and the same, dog-tired, old, retread crap that one hears now in the dinosaur media was bleated back then. "Financial meltdown, the end of capitalism, etc., etc. It's all CRAP!
In capitalism. markets are SUPPOSED TO FAIL - from time to time. That's how the system flushes out the suckers, but since no one from Ben Stein to Lou Dobbs seems to get this, here is a re-cap of my weeks e-mailings on this matter -
"OK OK OK!
Everybody just calm down!
Jim sent out an interesting powerpoint on the current, so-called "crisis"... sorry Jim, but that thing engaged in FAR too much "Republicans Good" - "Democrats Bad" nonsense. There is enough blame to go around here, but I am sick and tired of this stupid "teamism" going around... You all know me, and by that knot, you know that I HATE all politicians - they are all gangsters and pirates and all need to be dumped in the drink. So there. Now, after sitting down and reading all I could get my hands on, from all sides of the question, here is my take on what really has happened - no blame game, no third grade recess "teacher, he's touching me again" baby talk!
Read it a and weep -
The government, wall st., and everyday average citizens wanted more people to buy and own houses. Instead of traditional loan procedures like good credit, jobs, income level, collateral, and 10-20 percent downpayments, ALL of the above mentioned people thought it would be a good idea to sell loans to people with a good interest rate and low downpayment, when these people couldn't afford it, had bad credit or no credit, little to no collateral, and maybe even no job. These people, obviously, began to default on these loans because as you can imagine, they could not afford it in the first place. Now, again, the blame lies EVERYWHERE. From Wall St. to the Clinton presidency to the Bush presidency to everyday people like you and me. Everyone thought, for some reason that this would, in the end, be a good plan to increase home sales and ownership.
Now, if you don't know anything about economics, read the following closely - contact me if you have questions. Read on..
These loans were then used to back or leverage other deals and transactions, thinking that the interest/payments paid on these loans would more than pay for any other transactions made. These transactions were "mortgage backed" transactions. When people started missing their payments, all of the sudden these "mortgage backed" transactions were not funded any longer. This drove the value of these mortgages as investment tools down to almost nothing. No one would buy them, no one would sell them- which equals death in the market. They became what people call "toxic" or unable to move at all either buying or selling, they are worthless. These investment houses and banks owned so much of these mortgage backed expenses that it absolutely overwhelmed them. It would be like if you owned a business that sold furniture. All of the sudden the furniture was worthless, but you still owed your creditors, the utilities, the rent on your store, and could not pay them because your inventory was worthless. You would go out of business. That is a weak example, because it doesn't take so many things into consideration, but you get the idea.
However, there are real houses out there that are certainly "worth" something, AS LONG AS THERE ARE PEOPLE IN THEM MAKING PAYMENTS ON THEIR MORTGAGES.. That is the government's "bail out" plan. To infuse enough money back into these "toxic" assets in order to get them trading again, and to get people back in them that will pay their mortgages fully and on time. Then, in the near future, these assets will no longer be "toxic" because this money infusion goal is to get people back in them paying their mortgages, which in turn will hopefully make them EXTREMELY valuable, and maybe even make the government 7-10% in gains over the next few years.
Now to Part 2 of this mess -
All of this also leans into the credit market, especially the overnight lending which usually occurs between banks to keep loans/etc. afloat. This has virtually stopped. I heard yesterday that if you want a car loan, unless you have at least a 720 credit score, you will 100% not get one. Loans for businesses & banks to stay active, trading and working is crucial. So this is the "credit crisis". Banks are hoarding cash and not lending it to ANYONE without the most pristine credit. So this adds to the already terrible problem. So much more but I have not the time to explain it all.
SO, the big question is, will all of this work? Let's all hope so, because there are seemingly no other options on the table. Whether you agree with Democrats or Republicans, it doesn't really matter in this case. We will ALL come down if this doesn't work. Oversight, Oversight Oversight on the money is needed. Brilliant people need to be in charge, and like I said, politics must take a back seat. Paulson, by all accounts, and from EVERYONE I know and have heard, is a brilliant man. Whether this power corrupts him is yet to be seen but I am sure he has the best intentions.
One more note - it would cost the government (that's you and me people), depending on which set of numbers you vet, 144 to 202 billion dollars to just BUY THE TOXIC PAPER OUTRIGHT! Now, I'm no socialist, but it seems to me that the guvmint is giving this money to the wrong people, 'cuz if the bad mortgages are PAID, everyone makes out. Then the FHA/VHA/whatever, can re-issue a, let's call it a certificate, to the current home squatter that is the equivalent to a 99 year mortgage, or the occupant has the option to be evicted. Either way, it would go a long way to solving this w/o giving away a trillion bucks or more.
'nuff said
russell"
Eve Jagger wrote:
> Russ
> That was a helpful explanation for people like myself. Makes much more sense now. What do you predict is going to happen these next few months and how will this affect average americans?
Eve-
If this is managed correctly - and I have absolutely no faith that it will be - forget about getting ANY kind of loan for ANYTHING for 18 - 38 months. The guvmint needs to set up a resolution trust entity to buy up the toxic paper then, as I said previous -"BUY THE TOXIC PAPER OUTRIGHT! Now, I'm no socialist, but it seems to me that the guvmint is giving this money to the wrong people, 'cuz if the bad mortgages are PAID, everyone makes out. Then the FHA/VHA/whatever, can re-issue a, let's call it a certificate, to the current home squatter that is the equivalent to a 99 year mortgage, or the occupant has the option to be evicted."
At this point the toxic paper can be liquidated at a static rate, or the guvmint (IE, taxpayers) will eventually make money on the deal - but his will take TIME. The spillover is going to get worse, but not catastrophic - yet. I quote myself yet again -"leans into the credit market, especially the overnight lending which usually occurs between banks to keep loans/etc. afloat. This has virtually stopped. I heard yesterday that if you want a car loan, unless you have at least a 720 credit score, you will 100% not get one. Loans for businesses & banks to stay active, trading and working is crucial. So this is the "credit crisis". Banks are hoarding cash and not lending it to ANYONE without the most pristine credit. So this adds to the already terrible problem". So hang on to your car for a while, and rent... don't even attempt a mortgage for the time I specified.
Check the following :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_securities
AND
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_derivative#Types
The S*** will hit the fan when the guvmint bailout fails, (and it will fail -see my statement of non-faith, above) and Congress will or can no longer fund this illegal give away of our money. Then the finance houses will HAVE to declare bankruptcy, and during the due diligence and discovery process of the proceeding, we find out that credit derivative investments (mostly unfunded paper) have a real world value of about 2 - 5% of their book value.
Then it will be "Pass the pitchfork, comrade"...
Learn survival skills from Kieth, and hang on.
russell
Donna Williams sent me an email on McCain's proposal to renegotiate bad mortgages - I replied -
Donna-
Yeah, I caught that last night too -- it is exactly what I recommended in an email exchange with some of my people about 3 weeks ago - I am quoting my favorite economist... ME! Read on -
" However, there are real houses out there that are certainly "worth" something, AS LONG AS THERE ARE PEOPLE IN THEM MAKING PAYMENTS ON THEIR MORTGAGES.. That is the government's "bail out" plan. To infuse enough money back into these "toxic" assets in order to get them trading again, and to get people back in them that will pay their mortgages fully and on time. Then, in the near future, these assets will no longer be "toxic" because this money infusion goal is to get people back in them paying their mortgages, which in turn will hopefully make them EXTREMELY valuable, and maybe even make the government 7-10% in gains over the next few years."
" If this is managed correctly - and I have absolutely no faith that it will be - forget about getting ANY kind of loan for ANYTHING for 18 - 38 months. The guvmint needs to set up a resolution trust entity to buy up the toxic paper then, as I said previous" (emphasizing my own genius)
"One more note - it would cost the government (that's you and me people), depending on which set of numbers you vet, 144 to 202 billion dollars to just BUY THE TOXIC PAPER OUTRIGHT! Now, I'm no socialist, but it seems to me that the guvmint is giving this money to the wrong people, 'cuz if the bad mortgages are PAID, everyone makes out. Then the FHA/VHA/whatever, can re-issue a, let's call it a certificate, to the current home squatter that is the equivalent to a 99 year mortgage, or the occupant has the option to be evicted. Either way, it would go a long way to solving this w/o giving away a trillion bucks or more."
But Donna, it will never be done - this has been in the planning, not by some global conspiracy, but by like-minded elitists, for decades now. And now the actions is being takes to destroy, first the US economy, then the rest of the world. Depressing isn't it? And there is nothing that can be done about it, short of... well nothing really. It's all part of the plan my dear...
'nuff said
russell
I concluded the week quoting from George Orwell's 1984 -
Sad song, sad song =
"After the revolutionary period of the fifties and sixties, society regrouped itself, as always, into High, Middle, and Low. But the new High group, unlike all its forerunners, did not act upon instinct but knew what was needed to safeguard its position. It had long been realized that the only secure basis for oligarchy is collectivism. Wealth and privilege are most easily defended when they are possessed jointly. The so-called 'abolition of private property' which took place in the middle years of the century meant, in effect, the concentration of property in far fewer hands than before: but with this difference, that the new owners were a group instead of a mass of individuals. Individually, no member of the Party owns anything, except petty personal belongings. Collectively, the Party owns everything in Oceania, because it controls everything, and disposes of the products as it thinks fit. In the years following the Revolution it was able to step into this commanding position almost unopposed, because the whole process was represented as an act of collectivization. It had always been assumed that if the capitalist class were expropriated, Socialism must follow: and unquestionably the capitalists had been expropriated. Factories, mines, land, houses, transport -- everything had been taken away from them: and since these things were no longer private property, it followed that they must be public property. Ingsoc, which grew out of the earlier Socialist movement and inherited its phraseology, has in fact carried out the main item in the Socialist programme; with the result, foreseen and intended beforehand, that economic inequality has been made permanent."
THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF OLIGARCHICAL COLLECTIVISM
by Emmanuel Goldstein
(The 'Book within a Book' from George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four)
passer la fourche camarade -
russell
No comments:
Post a Comment